It’s one day to the Iowa caucuses, and after digging into the collection of 42 articles and seven tweets below, some of you might wonder: Why so little on the Republican primary?
And the answer is: it just isn’t newsworthy. It would be a stunning turn of events for either of Donald Trump’s main challengers, former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Niki Haley or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, to provide a serious challenge to the former president at this point.
Trump isn’t even really campaigning hard, and yet he maintains a giant lead — 28 points in the final Des Moines Register/NBC News Iowa Poll. And Iowa’s no outlier. The GOP primary is just a snooze. It’s political theater with absolutely no impact. The media is still covering the campaign with its usual verve, but it’s almost hard to justify that level of attention, given Trump’s massive lead.
It’s not worth paying attention to the general election race yet either. It’s just too early for much of what is happening to matter. There are soundbites that could come back to haunt Trump in the fall. There are polls that fuel negative narratives about President Biden (although there are also polls showing the opposite) and Democratic handwringing. And there are behind the scenes developments, like the building of campaign apparatuses, that will matter a lot down the line, but get less coverage.
If anything, the most interesting piece I’ve seen on the campaign in recent months is a Bloomberg analysis included and bolded below on what impact population shifts in swing states may have on the campaign. It’s fascinating and looks to be good news for Biden. But it’s that sort of macro-level, structural stuff that is most worth digging into at this juncture of this particular campaign. That’s what matters much more than campaign developments in January.
There are still a few articles on Trump’s appeal to evangelical voters and how Republican elected officials keep humiliating themselves to court his favor. But most of what’s getting coverage now simply won’t matter much come November. That will remain true for months, barring a major catastrophe that calls for presidential leadership, which could make or break Biden’s chances, or the Supreme Court shocking the world and ruling that Trump is disqualified from holding office by the 14th Amendment. Otherwise, it makes sense to wait until late spring or early summer to really tune into the twists and turns of the campaign.
That isn’t to say that Americans should ignore the dangerous, aberrant, dictator-like stuff that comes out of Trump’s mouth. Those ramblings should alarm everyone and it’s crucial that people know about them to understand how manifestly unfit the former president is. But polling, campaign events, the breathless narratives in the media — that stuff really isn’t worth your time until we get to May or June.
All of the shots of reporters decked out in winter gear or stuck in airports trying to get to Iowa after a blizzard may fill airtime on cable news. But it’s not going to have much to do with who is president come January 20, 2025, barring a major shocker.
So what have I included below? News and analysis that covers the gamut of political and policy topics, including the Israel-Hamas war, abortion, the Supreme Court, the mess that is the House Republican Caucus, and whether the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump from holding office. A lot of the most interesting pieces—the most reads bolded below—focus on providing nuance and diving into data or history that is relevant to understanding hot button issues like gun violence and the 14th Amendment debate. It gets beneath talking points and the usual politically focused coverage.
There is a behind-the-scenes long read on the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision and how the Court came to snatch abortion rights away from women. It provides deep insight into the dynamics of the Court that will be hugely important as the justices tackle a plethora of blockbuster cases over the next six months.
But I also zeroed in on topics that won’t receive top billing in the national news — including two very different stories that raise trouble questions about the relationship between Qatar and its leaders, and American educational institutions, both K-12 and higher ed. Additionally there is a tweet and an article on Democrats’ purported struggles with African American voters, one of which should hearten Democratic partisans, and one of which should scare them. You’ll also find a deep dive on a fascinating internecine war in Texas over school vouchers, an interview with America’s most interesting senator, and more.
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