Three Things to Know With 2 Weeks to Go

Analysis of what you need to know about the campaign as we enter the final stretch.

1. 

   Photo by Mick Haupt on Unsplash

   Here’s the truth about the presidential contest — both campaigns think it’s a toss up race that’s going to be decided by razor thin margins. That means the presidency is likely to be won on the ground through data driven field work.

   The problem with that kind of race, where neither campaign has much of an advantage in any of the swing states, is that there isn’t much for analysts to chew on. Not even the campaigns really know what will happen, and in a 24/7 news cycle, that creates a vacuum. Making the state of play even more muddled, the last presidential election took part during a pandemic, so something like early voting data, which might be useful to compare under some circumstances, is pretty worthless because voter habits might change.

   All of which is to say, polling over the last two weeks is unlikely to tell us much. The same holds true for that early voting data. We just don’t know what it means — Republicans are turning out in higher numbers early than they have in the past, but are these just people who would’ve otherwise voted on Election Day?

   Over the next two weeks, you’ll see countless features on the key demographic groups and swing towns, and the two campaigns will try just about everything to drive their preferred pool of voters to the polls (or the mailbox). But any poll showing a big margin in a key state is likely to be an anomaly and polling just isn’t precise enough to really trust in a one point race.

   The most useful breakdowns that I’ve seen in recent days have centered on crucial counties and communities in swing states and how the two candidates can win in each of those states. They offer up places to watch as we get reporting, as well as down ballot polling.

   But don’t expect a lot of clarity to emerge before Election Day absent some sort of earth shattering news (In the old, pre-Trump days, the Marine general who had been chief of staff for one of the candidates saying that he “certainly falls into the general definition of fascist” and “prefers the dictator approach to government” would’ve been just that sort of news. But it’s questionable (astonishingly) how much this moves anyone in 2024).

2. So then what do we watch for to try to get a sense of where the race is moving? I’m focused on the few House polls coming out because they provide new data, and a glimpse of how some of the hardest fought swing districts look politically. I’m also closely watching how the parties move money around in House races, because it signals both their confidence levels, and where races might be breaking late. In some cases, those decisions will also provide intelligence on the presidential race.

   In that regard, the news largely has been good for Democrats over the last few days. There were a few polls showing them with leads in New York swing districts, and running close in districts in Michigan and Florida that, if they win, will probably signal a very good night for the party. Democrats also pulled ad reservations in a bunch of districts where they concluded their members/candidates were no longer at risk. Hopefully, as the last two weeks of the campaign play out, we’ll get more of this data, because it will tell us a lot not just about the battle for the House, but also about the presidential election.

3. If this race is as close as both campaigns anticipate, it’s going to come down to field operations. That’s a benefit to Democrats, because the Harris campaign has far more money, and far more volunteers to knock on doors, write postcards, text people, etc. I also wonder if they benefit from something else: in three battleground states, you have ambitious governors with national aspirations who would benefit from delivering their states for their party’s nominee.

   In Georgia, this could help Donald Trump, as Governor Brian Kemp activates his machine to turn Republican voters out (and maybe to win over traditional Republicans who like Kemp a lot more than they like Trump). But in Pennsylvania and Michigan, this should help Democrats as Governors Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer labor to deliver their pivotal states. Additionally, in two other crucial states, Wisconsin and North Carolina, Democrats have prominent state party chairs, who have worked assiduously to build grassroots machinery for their parties.

   Now, no governor or turnout operation can make up a five point deficit. But in a race decided by one percent or less, having people who know their states inside and out and different layers of grassroots operations to reach and persuade different difficult to reach voters could be the difference.

4. This is the first of a bunch of quick hitting columns as we head toward Election Day. If you’re a paid subscriber and you have a question, drop it in the chat, or in the comments and I’ll answer it in the next column. I encourage you to consider a paid subscription, which enables me to produce more content, especially over the next month.