This might be the shortest debate preview in history.
I could analyze the relative strengths of Tim Walz and JD Vance, talk about who should be the favorite (probably Vance, the Yale trained lawyer), or offer more on what to look for.
But the truth is there is 0 indication that vice presidential debates are particularly important. Lloyd Bentsen scored one of the best knockout punches in vice presidential debate history…and he and his running mate, Michael Dukakis lost by almost eight points.
The closest a vice presidential debate has come to mattering might’ve been in 2008 when Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin looked to be in over her head, and her running mate, Arizona Senator John McCain was — for the time — considered old to be running for president at age 72. But even then, there was little indication that the vice presidential debate moved the needle.
Arguably, once again, the vice presidential debate should matter a lot in 2024. As in 2008, Vance has performed unevenly (at best) since becoming the Republican vice presidential nominee in July and he has precious little experience in politics. His approval rating is upsides down, and like Palin, he’s running with a septuagenarian — one even older than McCain and prone to moments that raise questions about his mental fitness.
Yet, when we consider that the presidential debate last month between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, at most, moved the polls by a point or two, and that plenty of people thought Harris won the debate and still told pollsters and focus group facilitators that they were voting for Trump, it seems unlikely that anything could happen tonight to move the needle.
People just don’t vote on the vice presidential nominee, let alone his or her performance on the debate stage.
Given that, trying to handicap the showdown seems pointless. For the civic good, Americans should watch the debate. But let’s be honest: it’s the Seinfeld of political debates (a debate that means nothing).
"...prone to moments that raise questions about his mental fitness...". Nicely said, Brian - with a complete absence of rhetorical overstatement! :-)