The State of the Presidential Race Before the Debate
Kamala Harris is ahead — but it's close and a lot can change
There hasn’t been much to say about the presidential race since the end of the Democratic Convention. It’s been in a period of stasis, and before this week we didn’t have a lot of high quality post-convention polling to digest.
But there are signs that if the election happened today, the result would look a lot like 2020. First, we’ve gotten recent polls of Alaska and Montana that look an awful lot like the outcome in those states in 2020. They’re decent benchmarks for a “control group” as to the state of play because neither side is investing energy in these states (the polls were conducted with an eye toward down ballot races).
Second, as the great folks at Split Ticket broke down, the Washington all party primary is usually an excellent predictor of where the election is heading, and the results from the non-Seattle parts of the state (which look a lot more like the crucial swing states) were a bit better for Democrats than they were in 2020. The Washington primary was a major clue in 2022 that we wouldn’t see a red wave. So this is an important data point that augurs well for Kamala Harris.
Third, Democrats have seen a surge in volunteer signups and fundraising since Harris became the party’s nominee — including more than a million new donors. And while the intensity of sentiment that drives people to donate and volunteer doesn’t necessarily tell us a party is going to win, it provides an indication that depressed Democratic turnout won’t be a problem. More volunteers also means more of a ground game, which could help Harris at the margins.
Finally, as veteran scribe Ron Brownstein noted, even relatively good polls for Donald Trump — which portray a very tight race — have Harris matching President Joe Biden’s share of the white vote from 2020. Trump is staying close in the polls because they show him making inroads with voters of color. And it’s not clear he can maintain those gains as voters tune into the election (and that they aren’t a mirage due to polling issues).
Tuesday’s debate will be absolutely crucial to determining the outcome of the election. It should generate the largest audience the candidates will receive between now and Election Day. That makes it a real opportunity for Harris. If she performs strongly, it could go a long way toward making her the next president (a more detailed debate preview is coming on Tuesday).
Now, as I explained to S.E. Cupp on Battleground News this week, none of this means the race is over. A lot can happen to change the contours of a presidential election after Labor Day.
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