The stakes for Thursday night’s presidential debate could not be higher for both President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump. And yet, it’s also possible —maybe even likely — that the debate has little impact on the outcome of the election.
How can both be true?
The candidates are historically unpopular, and both have unique liabilities. A misstep could exacerbate voters’ concerns, whereas strong performances could assuage Americans’ doubts about each man’s fitness. One viral moment that makes it appear as if Biden is confused or struggling cognitively could do severe harm to his reelection chances — even if the rest of his performance is strong. Undoubtedly, it would become the post debate focus of the media and would shoot around social media, taking on a life of its own.
Similarly, Trump needs to avoid rambling incoherently, saying cruel or bigoted things, and indulging his authoritarian impulses. Any of these things would remind voters who might prefer him for economic reasons — but have deep hesitancy about his temperament and capacity — of everything they loathe and fear about the former president. That could damage him with the “double haters,” who might decide the election. It could also galvanize left of center voters ambivalent about Biden to vote, donate, and volunteer.
By contrast, a truly top notch performance by Biden — in which his empathy is on display, he shows a good grasp of policy issues, and he presents a positive agenda for the future — could go a long way toward quieting concerns about his age. The television and streaming audience on Thursday could be the largest one of the campaign, and it might be his best shot to convince Americans he’s up to the job. Trump could give himself a similar boost by resisting his worst impulses, though he rarely seems capable of that.
Usually Biden would be an underdog, because presidents — from Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama — typically have poor first debate performances. They’ve spent four years in the presidential bubble where few people question them or push back against their edicts. Meanwhile, their challengers come in with ample debate practice during their primary campaigns. But in this instance, Trump didn’t debate during the Republican primary, so, he too, hasn’t faced off with an opponent since 2020. It wouldn’t shock me, therefore, to see both men struggle early in the debate as they find their footing.
Given the stakes, then, why is it possible that the debate will have very little impact on the outcome in November? We’re in uncharted territory. Presidential debates typically happen in the weeks before voters head to the polls (or mail their ballots in). One of the most critical debates in history — the only one in 1980 between President Jimmy Carter and challenger Ronald Reagan — took place a mere week before the election.
Thursday’s debate, by contrast, is occurring more than four months before Election Day. Not only that, it’s happening on the Thursday night before what promises to be a big vacation week. Many Americans are probably more focused on travel plans, packing, planning July 4th barbecues, and beach days than presidential politics. Additionally, because it’s so early, there will be innumerable events between Thursday night and Election Day with a significant impact on the election.
Just to offer up an example — albeit an extremely unlikely one — the Supreme Court term is likely to end either Friday or early next week. Let’s just say Chief Justice John Roberts stunned pretty much everyone and chose to retire at the end of the term. And to be clear, I don’t even think this is in the realm of possibility. But it’s an example of the sort of unexpected happening that could — and will — scramble the election countless times between now and November. That doesn’t even include the two party conventions.
Think about it this way: an undecided voter could be impressed by Biden on Thursday and either decide to back him, or to turn out when they were on the fence about voting at all before watching the debate. But then the president could do or say something in September — far closer to when that voter heads to the polls or chooses not to — that changes their mind.
Overall, what do I expect to happen?
I’d be surprised if both candidates don’t provide soundbites that the other campaign quickly moves to capitalize on. Neither is a polished enough messenger to avoid that over 90 minutes, especially when things easily can be distorted or taken out of context.
I’d also expect that what ends up being the focus of post debate coverage may not be immediately apparent when the candidates wrap up their closing statements. Famously, in 2000, people who watched the first debate between Al Gore and George W. Bush thought Gore won. But for those who didn’t see the showdown, they came to believe Bush won in the days following the debate, because, with prodding from the Bush campaign, the media focused relentlessly on Gore’s sighs and eye rolls.
If Biden has a truly terrible night, it will spark a new round of calls for him to step aside before the Democratic Convention in August. If Trump has an awful night, I’d expect him to name his running mate sometime between the end of the debate and the end of the day Friday. It would allow him to distract from discussion of his performance.
But Biden has typically risen to the occasion in big moments — his acceptance speech in 2020, his State of the Union addresses — and he knows that this is his chance to reset the election. So it’s certainly possible that he posts a solid to great performance and changes perceptions about his capacity. For Trump, I’d expect that the time limits imposed by the format and mic cut off switches will save him from his worst rambling. My guess is he’s going to say things that leave Democrats aghast and convinced he lost the debate miserably only to find out that they didn’t hurt him all that much.
One thing that’s far from impossible: we could come out of the debate talking more about Trump’s age and fitness than Biden’s. Most voters don’t see his rambling, sometimes incoherent rally speeches, and the press has focused much more on Biden’s age and cognitive capacity. Yet, the New York Times’ Peter Baker eloquently summed up why, maybe, that’s the opposite of how it should be in a new Biden profile. “But looking past the verbal miscues and painful elocution, Mr. Biden does not wander into unreality the way that Mr. Trump, 78, often does and his substantive points are for the most part as conversant and informed as in the past.” If Trump wanders into “unreality,” it may surprise voters who have seen little of him since he left office in 2020 and become the story of the debate.
Overall, unless we get the sort of truly viral moment that becomes indelibly inked into the history books — think Ronald Reagan’s famous quip about his age in 1984 on the positive side of the ledger, or Gerald Ford’s confusion about control of Eastern Europe in 1976 on the negative side — I lean toward thinking the debate won’t have a huge impact.